Palantir Stock Forecast: A Bear Takes a Second Look

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I’ve taken a generally bearish stance on Palantir Technologies (NYSE:PLTR) for quite some time now. That’s generally due to various fundamental concerns I have with the company, as well as questionable forward growth expectations. 

However, putting all that aside, I thought I’d take a look at the bull case for Palantir. Let’s dive into the company’s key catalysts. Indeed, given that the company has a strong following due to its AI capabilities, its government-generated revenue streams, and commercial market growth, maybe there’s something here.

Let’s dive into what investors may want to consider, from a positive angle, when it comes to Palantir.

PLTR Stock: The Fundamentals

There are plenty of unprofitable companies in the artificial intelligence (and tech sector, for that matter). So, Palantir’s recent financials may impress some investors, with Q2 revenue growth of 13% (to $533.3 million), and net income growth of 116% year-over-year. Notably, Palantir has strung together consecutive quarters of positive profitability, something many critics thought would never be possible.

Now, I’ve focused on the fact that this profitability has been minimal. And that is the case. But given Palantir’s strength as a deal-maker with key government agencies and commercial partners, perhaps this earnings growth could accelerate from here. That’s the bull case anyhow.

In this regard, the company’s $302 million in government customer revenue represented a 15% year-over-year increase, with its $232 million in commercial customer revenue representing a 10% increase. The company has been consistently profitable by GAAP standards for three quarters and has revenue forecasts in line with expectations for Q3 and fiscal 2023. That’s not nothing, and it’s a reason for bulls to continue to be hopeful right now. 

Upcoming Q3 Results

Investors continue to debate Palantir stock’s outlook, with bulls emphasizing improved profitability and bears concerned about slowing revenue growth. Thus, the company’s upcoming Q3 earnings will be closely watched. Experts currently project earnings to come in at 6 cents per share (up from 1 cent), and 18% revenue growth to $556 million, will be announced on November 2. Again, I think the bottom-line number will need to be beat, as it will matter more than it ever has for the company. 

Notably, PLTR stock reached a 52-week intraday high in August, and its technical ratings have since improved. This stock benefited greatly from previous earnings surprises. Another earnings surprise is widely expected by bulls, and anything other than a big beat will likely be disappointing for many.

PLTR Continues in Closing Contracts

Palantir co-founder Peter Thiel recently secured a 5-year service contract with the U.K.’s NHS to enhance data analysis using AI tools. Analysts have discussed the deal’s implications, providing some reasons to be bullish and reasons to be critical of the deal.

The controversial five-year contract, now valued at over 480 million, aims to improve the NHS’s data analysis capabilities. It faced criticism over patient data privacy concerns. While there’s excitement around this development, Palantir’s performance this year initially rode on AI enthusiasm.

Additionally, Palantir Technologies also secures a $250 million contract with the US Defense Department for AI and machine learning research. The three-year deal strengthens its ties with the US government and its role in AI and defense. This contributed to a 6% rise in Palantir’s shares in September. The contract builds on their prior work with the Army Research Lab, focusing on AI research and development. Specific details remain undisclosed.

In the tech era, Palantir stands out as a game-changer, combining innovation with strategic brilliance. PLTR stock’s strong year-to-date return makes it a top wealth-boosting AI stock. That’s what the bulls will tell you, anyway.

On the date of publication, Chris MacDonald did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the Publishing Guidelines.

Chris MacDonald’s love for investing led him to pursue an MBA in Finance and take on a number of management roles in corporate finance and venture capital over the past 15 years. His experience as a financial analyst in the past, coupled with his fervor for finding undervalued growth opportunities, contribute to his conservative, long-term investing perspective.

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