Plug Power (NASDAQ:PLUG) shares have bounced back lately. That may seem like a sign that Plug Power stock is coming back, but I wouldn’t jump to that conclusion. The reasons for this are manifold.
For one, the driver of this recent rally is not much of a game changer. The various factors that knocked this hydrogen energy play lower previously have not gone away.
To make matters worse, there could be political risks emerging for this stock, which took shortly after the last U.S. Presidential election, but could experience further turbulence after this November.
As tempting as it is to believe that “the worst is already priced-in,” unfortunately that may not be the case. With this, selling now is likely your best move.
The Recent Plug Power Stock Rally May Prove Fleeting
Last month, Plug Power hit its latest major milestone. On May 14, the company announced that it received a conditional commitment loan guarantee from the U.S. Department of Energy, worth up to $1.66 billion.
With this news, Plug Power is one step closer to executing on its plans to build up to six “green hydrogen” production facilities in the United States.
In case you don’t know, “green hydrogen” is merely hydrogen produced through the use of renewable energy-produced electricity rather than from fossil fuels.
It’s not surprising that this news drove a 19% move higher on May 14. Yet while PLUG stock has thus far held onto most of these recent gains, this rally may prove fleeting. In an article published shortly after the loan guarantee news, Seeking Alpha commentator Henrik Alex broke down the situation, separating the facts from the hype.
In particular, Alex pointed out that receiving this guarantee doesn’t mean that the company is close to having this financing in place. Plug may have to jump through a lot of hoops.
The process could take months, at a minimum. In the meantime, both existing and potentially-emerging issues could sink shares back to lower prices.
New and Emerging Risks
Yes, it’s not just the loan guarantee news that has perked up sentiment for PLUG stock. The latest wave of “meme stock” mania has played a role. The company has also had other positive news to report in recent weeks, including a just-announced “green hydrogen” project in Australia.
Still, despite the bullish news, plus other positives such as falling “going concern” risk, other risks for PLUG have yet to fully go away.
Plug Power has made some progress reducing cash burn, but losses continue to come in at a few hundred million per quarter.
As the aforementioned Seeking Alpha commentator also pointed out in his recent article, the chances of further shareholder dilution remain high.
Selling newly-issued shares into the open market remains one of Plug’s best ways to shore up its balance sheet, and to finance new projects.
Besides these existing problems, a political-related one could emerge later this year.
If the Republicans retake the White House in this November’s U.S. Presidential elections, it could have a $1 trillion negative impact on the clean energy space, according to analyst at Wood MacKenzie.
Although this may not affect previously-funded Plug Power projects, a political change could limit future growth.
The Verdict: Pull the PLUG Pronto, Sell into Strength
Yes, it’s hardly a lock that unfavorable political changes for Plug Power are a near-certainty. However, consider it yet another cause for caution, atop more pressing concerns regarding Plug Power’s fundamentals and financing activities.
Also, keep in mind that the latest “meme wave” has helped PLUG sustain its rally. Hence, if this latest wave dissipates, it may have a negative impact on Plug Power’s stock price performance.
With more that could knock it lower, and with only unforeseeable news likely to be the only thing to spark a dramatic move higher for Plug Power stock, the verdict here is clear.
If you currently own it, cut your losses, by selling into strength. If you’ve yet to buy PLUG, your best move is to stay away.
On the date of publication, Thomas Niel did not hold (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.